In this period, the Suez Railway was already operating at full capacity, completely saturated by a staggering volume of goods. The existing trade between Asia and Europe had been more than enough to strain it, but it was the addition of new shipping from both Terra and Gloria that had pushed it to the breaking point.

***

While sea routes did exist between Terra and Europe, as well as between Gloria and Europe, they were fraught with peril. The route from Terra required ships to hug the western coast of Africa, while the route from Gloria demanded a long, diagonal traverse of the Atlantic. The time inefficiency was one problem, but the extreme likelihood of encountering danger was a far greater one.

It was not just one or two ships that vanished while trying to traverse the vast, brutal expanse of the South Pacific and South Indian Oceans. If they survived those treacherous seas, they only had to face a new threat: pirates. The established shipping lanes, particularly those patrolled by the Imperial Navy, were almost entirely free of this menace, but the new direct routes from Terra and Gloria were dangerously exposed.

The situation had improved slightly once the Imperial Navy seized Gibraltar and began patrolling the mouth of the Mediterranean and the Moroccan coast, but this was a hopelessly inadequate solution, barely a drop in the ocean. As a result, pirates had simply shifted their dens south to the coasts of 21st-century southern Morocco, Western Sahara, and Mauritania, preying on the ships coming up from Africa and the European merchant vessels crossing the Atlantic.

Ultimately, this meant that all ships from Terra, and all ships from Gloria routing via Terra, made their way to Suez.

***

This funneling of global trade turned the Suez Railway into a scene of utter chaos. The railway station at Suez and the docks at Prince Henrique Harbor were a pandemonium of cargo: goods from Suez bound for the harbor, and supplies from the harbor bound for Suez. Merchants and cargo owners brawled over whose shipments should go first, their shouts mingling with the vicious clamor of laborers fighting to secure the next hauling job. The situation devolved into such a bedlam that the stakeholder nations, including the Empire, were forced to meet, despite the politically frosty atmosphere.

“Diplomacy is diplomacy, and Suez is Suez. Let us focus only on Suez,” the Imperial representative stated.

“Let’s,” the other representatives quickly agreed. 

Diplomacy is diplomacy, they all thought, but money is money!

The result of this emergency summit was a plan to further expand the Suez railway station and the port. A proposal was also raised to upgrade the current double-track railway to a quadruple-track, which passed with a unanimous vote. A massive infusion of capital was immediately invested to begin construction and, just as importantly, to manage the traffic. The cargo-handling zones were reorganized yet again, separating the flow of goods to and from Prince Henrique Harbor, while oversight was tightened to ensure only authorized workers were allowed entry.

“This should give us some breathing room for now,” an Imperial official noted, “but it’ll be chaos again before we know it.”

“I agree,” the French representative said, watching the ever-increasing volume of goods. “Things will only quiet down once the expansion is fully complete.”

The Portuguese officials shook their heads. “Looking at the current growth rate, it’ll be a madhouse again not long after the construction ends.”

“In that case,” the French representative pressed, “don’t we need a new solution?”

The Imperial representative gave a short, simple answer. “A canal. A big, beautiful canal.”

The French representative looked at him as if he were insane. “A canal? Didn’t we choose the railway precisely because a canal is too difficult to maintain?”

When the topic of a transport route between Suez and the Mediterranean had first been raised, a canal was the obvious first suggestion. Records of ancient canals in the region existed, and the land was almost perfectly flat. But the idea had been just as quickly dismissed due to the astronomical construction costs and, more importantly, the nightmarish maintenance.

“Wasn’t the canal abandoned because of all the sand blowing in from that goddamned desert?” the Frenchman argued. “You’d have to dredge it constantly, day in and day out. Who could possibly afford that?”

All the representatives, save for the Imperial one, nodded in agreement. The Imperial representative conceded the point.

“You’re not wrong. The maintenance costs for the railway are already considerable because of that same sand. But the railway has a hard limit. Sooner or later, we will have to start thinking seriously about a canal.”

***

And so, time passed, and the European powers began to agonize over the “Suez Canal.”

“The construction costs are enormous, it’s true,” one monarch mused. “But things are different now. In the past, it was unthinkable. Now? It seems… just barely within reach, if we stretch.”

Thanks to their plundering of Africa, Terra, and Gloria, the economies of the European powers had grown significantly. While they had recently spent no small amount on warfare, their economies, unlike in the past, now recovered quickly. And the massive, tangible profits they were all reaping from the Suez Railway made the canal look like a very attractive investment.

“Even Italy, with the smallest share, is making a fortune. What if… what if it was just us and the Ottomans in a joint venture? Just the two of us… what would those profits look like?” “It’s not just the shipping profits. Think of the oil! Petroleum! Before long, oil, not coal, will be what moves the world!”

***

Rumors were already rampant that the Empire was refining petroleum for fuel. The engine competition, with its specific exclusion of gunpowder, was seen as a blatant sign that the Empire had already designated petroleum as the future. The artisans and scholars challenging in the competition all agreed with this hypothesis.

“It’s too difficult with anything other than petroleum.”

“Gunpowder was the only other viable candidate, and they banned it outright! In the end, oil is the only answer.”

This analysis, layered on top of their ambitions, led the monarchs, capitalists, and scholars of Europe to a single, unified conclusion.

“To control the new era, one must control the oil!”

They couldn’t touch the Empire, which was already using it. And the other most promising regions were all under the control, or at least behind the buffer, of the Ottoman Empire.

“That means we just have to ‘persuade’ the Ottomans properly.”

“If I can get my hands on that canal and that oil, the hegemony will be mine!”

Despite reaching this conclusion, the European powers could not move easily. “The problem is the current Ottoman Sultan. He is absolutely no pushover.”

***

The Sultan ruling the Ottoman Empire was Bayezid II.Hyang’s own assessment of the man was thus:

“He is a moderate Islamic fundamentalist. The problem, of course, is the ‘fundamentalist’ part. Whether moderate or extreme, fundamentalists are a headache.”

Unlike his predecessor, Mehmed II, who had been pro-European, Bayezid II was a lover of traditional Islamic culture. He was known as ‘Bayezid the Just’ for his piety, which made him an incredibly difficult man to negotiate with. He was, of course, quite tolerant of other religions, following his father’s example by keeping Jerusalem open for Catholic and Orthodox pilgrimages.

Diplomatically, he was also moderate. He wasn’t focused on expansion like Mehmed II; his priority was stabilizing the vast territories his father had conquered. But this did not make him soft. Bayezid II had continued his father’s military reforms, strengthening the army around its gunpowder-weapon core. His neighbors, particularly in the Balkans and Eastern Europe, were never truly at ease.

This was the man the European powers had to convince. How can we sweet-talk the Ottomans into taking our hand? As the monarchs and ministers of Europe pondered this, they soon found their answer: Bayezid II’s age and his succession problem.

***

Bayezid II was already over sixty years old. While there were exceptions, like Hyang, who was still spry past ninety, in this era, a man over sixty was considered to be near death’s door. This meant a competition for his throne was imminent. And in the Ottoman Empire, succession was a bloody race.

The Sultan would scatter his sons across the empire as governors. When the Sultan died, his sons would race back to the capital; the first to arrive and secure the throne was the new Sultan. The problem was that this was never a fair race. The moment the Sultan showed signs of frailty, the sons would begin their competition. They would consolidate their local power and begin launching all manner of plots against their brothers. When the race truly began, it would escalate into a full-blown civil war fought on the roads to the capital.

In this race, cooperation and alliances were impossible. The victor, upon ascending the throne, immediately had all of his brothers executed. For the losers, the only options were execution or exile. It was an ‘All or Nothing’ race.

***

The European powers began their calculations, sensing the blood in the water. “Hooo… If we play this right…” If they could back a suitable candidate and see him to victory, the rewards would be immeasurable. “Who would be the best horse to back?” The European powers dispatched spies and merchants to the Ottoman Empire to find a suitable candidate. “It can’t be the front-runner, but it can’t be a long shot, either.”

The one most likely to succeed would already know his own strength, making him difficult to negotiate with. But backing a long shot was also problematic; his low probability meant he had a weak power base, which would require a far greater investment to prop up. Of course, if he did win… it would be the ultimate jackpot.

“The problem is, we’re not the only ones thinking this.”

With all the other powers almost certainly running the same calculations, the odds of success in such a chaotic gamble were low.

“That means we have to choose a candidate who is a viable contender, someone already in the running.”

Having reached this conclusion, the monarchs and power-brokers of Europe waited for the intelligence to pour in. The reports they received, however, made them shake their heads. “It’s a complete free-for-all.”

“To be more precise… is it a three-way war?”

Three of Bayezid II’s sons were locked in a subtle but fierce competition for the throne: Korkud, Governor of Anatolia; Ahmad, Governor of Amasya; and Selim, Governor of Trabzon. The European powers began to seriously weigh their options.

“Which one of these three offers the surest path to victory?”

Meanwhile, the Secret Guards agents stationed in Europe dutifully reported all of these movements back to Seoul. When Hyeon received the report, he immediately put his head in his hands. When Hyang was briefed later, he just cursed. “These goddamned bastards… Does it physically pain them to conduct politics in a straightforward, conventional manner?”