From kings to the village women of the countryside, from the natives of the European mainland to the foreigners staying there for trade or other reasons, most people living in Europe could smell the thick scent of war’s kindling embers.

Those who were particularly concerned were the scholars and the old, battle-hardened veterans.

• If a real war breaks out this time, it will be an immense conflict, the likes of which we have never experienced.

Through their exchanges with the empire, scholars predicted that the coming war would be vastly different from those of the past.

“Looking at the wars in the East, including those of the empire, especially the most recent ones, they were conflicts where at least units of 100,000 were mobilized. If such a war were to break out in Europe, could Europe withstand it?”

Meanwhile, the veteran soldiers who had fought battles with weapons exported by the empire and their replicas were even more grim.

“Even an eight-year-old can pull the trigger of a long gun. The problem is that the men who call themselves generals are still lost in their knightly games.”

“The generals are the problem…”

The veterans’ worries were well-founded.

***

Of all the large-scale battles fought with the fate of nations on the line, the most recent had been the Hundred Years’ War. It had been just over thirty years since that war had completely concluded. In those thirty years, everything about warfare had completely changed.

Up until the Hundred Years’ War, the main weapons of soldiers were spears, axes, and bows. Cannons were weapons to be used only in sieges. But now, the primary weapon of the soldier was the long gun. And cannons were being used not only in sieges but also to shatter the battle lines of an approaching enemy.

It was not just weapons and tactics that had changed. The concept of supply had been completely transformed. With the old swords and spears, one could simply use captured enemy weapons or conscript iron farming tools from local residents, melt them down, and forge new ones. However, with gunpowder weapons becoming generalized, this was no longer possible.

It was because of gunpowder. Barrels and wooden casks full of black powder would vanish in an instant if touched by a single small torch. The only thing that could be procured through local requisition was food. In other words, if supplies were not properly pushed forward from the rear, a proper battle was impossible, let alone victory.

This stark transformation had occurred in just a little over thirty years. Because of this, the high-ranking commanders of the various European nations, namely the high nobility, were still only familiar with the warfare of the Hundred Years’ War era.

***

Of course, there were a good number of commanders who had become familiar with the ‘war of guns and cannons’ through the Suez War. For this reason, the empire was paying special attention to France. The soldiers and commanders who were already experienced in war through the Hundred Years’ War had been filtered once more through the experience of fighting a war with guns and cannons.

However, contrary to the empire’s concerns, France’s internal problems were holding it back.

First, Suez, the very place that had produced such skilled soldiers and commanders, was the problem. Even at this moment, Suez was one of the most active trade routes. More than a few great powers coveted it, and France could not pull out its elite troops defending Suez in large numbers. As an alternative, they pursued a method of rotating newly formed units with the existing ones. However, due to problems with maintaining the combat strength of the Suez garrison and issues with transportation, a large-scale replacement was impossible. In short, this meant that the Suez garrison, one of their most powerful military assets, had to be counted as unavailable.

• Losing Italy is a loss, but losing Suez is a very great loss!

This was the judgment of Louis XI.

The second problem was the very one the old soldiers worried about. There was no shortage of commanders who had distinguished themselves in the Suez War, and quite a few had risen through the ranks in recognition of their merits. However, even with such success, only a very small number had grown enough to influence France’s national defense policy.

The biggest reason for this was that most of them were commanders of the compagnies d’ordonnance[1], France’s standing army. Most of the commanders of the compagnies d’ordonnance, the standing army of the French king, were commoners or, at best, low-ranking nobles. Therefore, there was an inevitable limit to how far they could advance.

“If only the Marshal were still alive…”

Blocked by the high, thick wall of career advancement, these men lamented the absence of Marshal de Richemont[2]. Arthur de Richemont, hero of the Hundred Years’ War, loyal servant of Charles VII, and reformer of the military. If only he had not died right after the end of the Hundred Years’ War, he would have been their most powerful sponsor.

However, the French nobility, who were desperately trying to prevent the king’s power, which had grown stronger after the annexation of Burgundy, from growing even stronger, vehemently blocked the advancement of commanders from the compagnies d’ordonnance. Louis XI, who still needed the cooperation of the nobles, accepted their demands as a sort of compromise.

And so, the top command positions in the French army were now occupied by men who only remembered the era of the Hundred Years’ War.

But Louis XI had not simply backed down. Befitting his notorious reputation as ‘the Cunning’ (le rusé), he concocted a scheme.

First, he firmly established the compagnies d’ordonnance as the king’s army. He prioritized them in everything from manpower supply to weapons provision and even raised the salaries of the soldiers and commanders.

Next, he called the nobles, who had retired to the reserves, back to the front lines.

“The situation in Italy is currently suspicious, so it seems it is time for you, my lords, to step forward.”

Of course, they suspected to some extent that this was a scheme by Louis XI, but they had to follow his command. The pretext he offered was plausible, and it was clear that if they refused this as well, the nobles would lose their standing. In the end, the nobles complied with Louis XI’s order, gathered troops, and began training them.

Here, another of Louis XI’s schemes was set into motion.

“The weapons needed for your troops will, of course, be supplied by the state. However, the budget is insufficient, so I would have you, my lords, pay for half of the necessary funds.”

“For the same reason, you are to purchase the bullets, cannonballs, and gunpowder for training with your own funds. Of course, should a war break out, I will supply the necessary ammunition and gunpowder for free, even if I have to empty my own coffers.”

The nobles had no choice but to accept Louis XI’s proposal, which was also a command. Gunpowder was an expensive commodity. However, because it was so expensive, the training of the units organized by the nobles was bound to be poor. A very small number of nobles who could read the political situation cut their expenses in areas like banquets and devoted themselves to live-fire training, but in most cases, they conducted their training by holding their guns, aiming, and making shooting sounds with their mouths.

The commanders of the compagnies d’ordonnance, who observed this training spectacle from afar, had cynical smiles on their faces.

“They will end up as nothing more than cannon fodder to soak up the enemy’s bullets.”

“I agree. The mercenaries are training more faithfully at this point…”

***

The ones who responded most actively to the changing state of the battlefield were the mercenaries.

Although the great powers of Europe were increasing the size of their standing armies, there were still limits. This was due to the problem of maintenance costs. And this problem was more severe for the smaller, weaker nations caught between the great powers. These weaker nations had no choice but to hire mercenary companies, the traditional method.

However, they did not hire just any mercenary company. The monarchs of the weaker nations applied strict criteria. The standard they insisted on was guns and cannons.

• At least half of the soldiers must be armed with long guns, and they must possess five or more cannons.
• The musketeers must be skilled.

This was the minimum standard demanded by the monarchs of the small nations, and if it was not met, a contract was out of the question.

In the end, to survive in the market, the mercenary captains and the mercenaries themselves diligently began to arm themselves with guns and cannons.

“The problem is the long guns! Even if we can’t get the standard-issue long gun made in the ‘Land of Flowers,’ we have to acquire at least something on the level of the Type-Eul long gun!”

“A matchlock? Are you kidding me!”

“If it really comes down to it, use bribes! If that doesn’t work, steal them!”

To obtain the Type-Eul long gun, or a similar breech-loading long gun, the mercenary captains and their men diligently traveled far and wide.

In this situation, there were some mercenary companies that were surprisingly at ease. These were the mercenaries who had participated in the last Suez War. At the time, the allies had supplied the participating mercenaries and their companies with the Type-Eul long gun and had also steadily supplied them with parts.

“You guys are going through a lot…”

The other mercenaries would retort angrily at the words of the Suez veterans.

“In exchange, you guys are tied to a leash until you die!”

“…”

Just as they said, the mercenary companies and mercenaries who had participated in the Suez War were supplied with an abundance of the latest long guns and ammunition, but in return, they were bound by a lifelong contract that prevented them from ever leaving the nation that had hired them.

The next step for the mercenaries who had secured firearms through various means, including bribery-fueled smuggling and theft, was training.

“The ammunition is so expensive…”

“It can’t be helped! The expenses we spend today guarantee our survival and our pay tomorrow!”

Even as they grimaced at the stomach-churning price of ammunition, the mercenaries faithfully continued their live-fire training. Just as they said, it was for their survival tomorrow and their pay tomorrow.

Some with anxious hearts, some seeking a chance for success and fame, and still others dreaming of a windfall, the eyes of the people were fixed on Italy.

However, the first shot rang out from a completely unexpected place.

Matthias I of Hungary had invaded Austria.

***

In 1457, a revolt broke out in Hungary. The Hungarian monarch at the time, Ladislaus the Posthumous, fled to Vienna but later died in Prague, Bohemia. After Ladislaus’s mysterious and untimely death, Frederick III laid claim to the thrones of Bohemia and Hungary.

However, the diets of Bohemia and Hungary rejected Frederick III’s demand and elected their own kings. Consequently, the relationship between the Habsburgs, Bohemia, and Hungary could not be good, and they could only watch each other with wary eyes.

In this situation, the Habsburgs’ entry into the arms race forced Hungary to make a choice as well. In the end, Hungary had no choice but to join the arms race.

The situation continued to deteriorate. The King of Bohemia, George of Poděbrady, was excommunicated by Pope Paul II at the time, leading the Catholic nobles of Bohemia to rebel. Through the ensuing civil war and peace treaty, the rule of Moravia, Silesia, and Lusatia was transferred to Hungary. However, this growth of Hungary made the Habsburgs even more hostile towards it.

The ever-intensifying arms race and the worsening relationship with the Habsburgs forced the hand of the King of Hungary, Matthias I.

“If the arms race continues like this, it will be a problem for both the Habsburgs and for us. Remember when they demanded our throne in the past! A man like Frederick will surely try to take our Hungary! We will strike first!”

Following the decision of Matthias I, the Hungarian army invaded Austria.